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[192.64.237.217]) by mx.google.com with ESMTPS id r130-20020a254488000000b0067b66cd80bcsi1232458yba.35.2022.08.13.05.32.22 for (version=TLS1_3 cipher=TLS_AES_256_GCM_SHA384 bits=256/256); Sat, 13 Aug 2022 05:32:22 -0700 (PDT) Received-SPF: pass (google.com: domain of delivery_20220813083216.28721868.787742@bouncest.seekingalpha.com designates 192.64.237.217 as permitted sender) client-ip=192.64.237.217; Authentication-Results: mx.google.com; dkim=pass header.i=@seekingalpha.com header.s=sailthru header.b=bAwQOiep; spf=pass (google.com: domain of delivery_20220813083216.28721868.787742@bouncest.seekingalpha.com designates 192.64.237.217 as permitted sender) smtp.mailfrom=delivery_20220813083216.28721868.787742@bouncest.seekingalpha.com; dmarc=pass (p=QUARANTINE sp=QUARANTINE dis=NONE) header.from=seekingalpha.com DKIM-Signature: v=1; a=rsa-sha256; c=relaxed; s=sailthru; d=seekingalpha.com; h=Date:From:Reply-To:To:Message-ID:Subject:MIME-Version:Content-Type: List-Unsubscribe; i=account@seekingalpha.com; bh=YQ7CKYTSqa9sFfDgXJgwOUvPhSFSB11P8DvDZ5qn6B8=; b=bAwQOieptNQlQAfTCbjQ2A0QHn5SEEsc2xbJXQKhHd6yJst0KU06mEBWajeSOSFPFWdbWuWin6tr x4RUP1T0BSSF3OFhq8IDmdFNekcTKbvgdpFt8sCixqpLFuIe/5+Wosd62SE0C6oC8Kcvr87ZsA/z mgq8ccueIBwcj99mHm8= Received: from nj2mta-18.sailthru.com (204.153.121.18) by pmta19.sailthru.com id huuctc30nu8e for ; Sat, 13 Aug 2022 08:32:16 -0400 (envelope-from ) Date: Sat, 13 Aug 2022 08:32:16 -0400 (EDT) From: Seeking Alpha Reply-To: wsbfeedback@seekingalpha.com To: sterlingwhg@gmail.com Message-ID: <20220813083216.28721868.787742@sailthru.com> Subject: Wall Street Breakfast: What Moved Markets MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: multipart/alternative; boundary="----=_Part_5499445_292028193.1660393936488" Precedence: bulk X-Feedback-ID: 9033:28721868:campaign:sailthru X-TM-ID: 20220813083216.28721868.787742 X-Info: Message sent by sailthru.com customer Seeking Alpha X-Info: We do not permit unsolicited commercial email X-Info: Please report abuse by forwarding complete headers to X-Info: abuse@sailthru.com X-Mailer: sailthru.com X-JMailer: nj1-badmanatee.flt X-Unsubscribe-Web: https://email-st.seekingalpha.com/oc/60c1e5c4dba83e59149ff347h3lxo.gvtq/02453fa2 List-Unsubscribe: , X-rpcampaign: stnjl28721868 X-Spam-Status: No, score=4.0 X-Spam-Score: 40 X-Spam-Bar: ++++ X-Spam-Flag: NO ------=_Part_5499445_292028193.1660393936488 Content-Type: text/html; charset=utf-8 Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable
Stocks clinched their fourth straight winning week with strong gains Friday= after the monthly report from the University of Michigan showed a surge in= consumer confidence, marking the second consecutive gain for the index sin= ce its June low. The upbeat data, coupled with a better than expected readi= ng of the consumer price index earlier in the week, had some traders feelin= g euphoric that the worst inflation had passed and that the Federal Reserve= might raise its main interest rate by just half a percentage point in Sept= ember, after two consecutive three-quarter-point increases. Meanwhile, the = bond market continues to take a pessimistic view of the economic outlook, w= ith the spread between the two-year and 10-year yields deeply inverted at n= egative 41 basis points. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq gained for the fourth w= eek in a row, up 3.2% and 3.1% respectively, while the Dow jumped 2.9% for = the week.
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Stocks clinched their fourth straight winning week with strong gains Friday= after the monthly report from the University of Michigan showed a surge in= consumer confidence, marking the second consecutive gain for the index sin= ce its June low. The upbeat data, coupled with a better than expected readi= ng of the consumer price index earlier in the week, had some traders feelin= g euphoric that the worst inflation had passed and that the Federal Reserve= might raise its main interest rate by just half a percentage point in Sept= ember, after two consecutive three-quarter-point increases. Meanwhile, the = bond market continues to take a pessimistic view of the economic outlook, w= ith the spread between the two-year and 10-year yields deeply inverted at n= egative 41 basis points. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq gained for the fourth w= eek in a row, up 3.2% and 3.1% respectively, while the Dow jumped 2.9% for = the week.
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Legislation
Inflation Redu= ction Act
After more than 15 hours of amendments and a "vote-a-ra= ma" session that stretched into Sunday afternoon, the U.S. Senate narrowly = passed the Inflation Reduc= tion Act. The measure - which aims to cut government deficits and consumer = medical bills while boosting climate spending - passed by a margin of 51-50= , with Vice President Kamala Harris casting the tie-breaking vote. It also = somewhat embodies earlier incarnations of the Build Back Better plan, albei= t with a price tag of around $430B (in place of $3.5T, and a revised versio= n of $2.2T).

Healthcare policies: The measure will = cap Medicare recipients' out-of-pocket prescription-drug costs at $2,00= 0 a year, while Obamacare subsidies will reduce 13M Americans=E2=80=99 annu= al medical-insurance premiums by $800. The measure also grants Medicare the= ability for the first time to negotiate some bulk discounts with drug comp= anies for pharmaceuticals - something many private companies currently do. = Meanwhile, the $35 insulin cap for Medicare beneficiaries remains in place,= but GOP lawmakers were successful in removing the provision from the priva= te market, which could have impacts for top insulin makers Eli Lilly (LLY), Novo Nordisk (NVO) and Sanofi (= SNY).

Tax legislation= : The bill will impose a 15% corporate minimum tax on large c= orporations - some of which report significant profits but pay little or no= thing in income taxes due to credits and deductions - such as Amazon (AMZN), Nike (NKE) and FedEx (FDX). It would also impose a new 1% tax on corporate stock buybacks,= though plans to tax the wealthy were removed, as well as taxing "carried i= nterest" payments of private equity fund managers. $80B of funding was stil= l earmarked to the Internal Revenue Service, with the aim at improving cust= omer service, increasing the number of audits and modernizing technology.
Climate investment: Incentives like a $4,00= 0 tax credit for the purchase of used EVs, and $7,500 for new ones, will dr= ive up interest in companies like Tesla (TSLA) and Ford (F) that = are assembling vehicles in the U.S. The new credits would apply to trucks, = vans and SUVs priced under $80,000 and cars up to $55,000 (only families wi= th adjusted gross incomes of up to $300,000 would be eligible). There are a= lso energy rebates for heat pumps, rooftop solar, electric HVAC and water h= eaters, as the U.S. aims to lower carbon emissions by around 40% by 2030. (= 447 comments)
     
On The Move
Revisiting m= emeland
All aboard! Just don't be the last one to get off the r= ocketship. Traders this week continued to buy up tickets to memeland, sendi= ng in fairies to circle the usual darlings.

To the moon: Be= d Bath & Beyond (NASDAQ:BBBY) popped 40% on Monday = as a record 120.5M shares changed hands, after gaining 30% in the previous session. GameStop (GME) was also halted for exchange for volatility, whi= le AMC Entertainment extended another big rally. Further outsized gains wer= e recorded by Express (EXPR), Overstock.com (OSTK), HEXO Corp. (HEXO), Vroom (VRM), Wa= itr Holdings (WTRH), Wayfa= ir (W) and CarLotz (LOTZ).

The latest catalyst appeared to spr= out out of the astounding rise and fall of AMTD Digital (HKD), which surged 32,000% since going public on July 15. The offbe= at Hong Kong-based fintech priced its IPO at $7.80, and while it topped out= at $2,540 last week, the movement was enough to remind the WallStreetBets = crowd of skyrocketing moves. AMC (AMC) also announced plans last week to issue a special dividend via= preferred equity units that will trade under ticker symbol "APE," which is= an online moniker for enthusiastic meme traders. Don't forget the recent r= ebound on Wall Street that has infused some risk back into the market, whil= e heavy short interest has set the stage for a meme comeback (more than hal= f of Bed Bath shares available for trading are now currently sold short).
Go deeper: A lot of the meme names that are now seei= ng a resurgence are still down heavily since the initial fever of January 2= 021. Some still swear by the technicals, which have created countless day t= rading channels and messaging platforms, while others are quick to point to= the eye-popping fortunes being posted online - but don't forget the whoppi= ng losses that get far less coverage. As an outgrowth of the YOLO trade, me= ming is partly a strategy (short squeeze), partly a gamble (remember binary= options?) and partly a middle finger to Wall Street (little guy vs. the su= its), which has been compounded by the gamification of stock apps and acces= s to commission-free trading. (17 comments)
     
Economy
Markets celebrate
Wall Street saw a stampede of buyers on Wednesday, as s= igns of cooling inflation sent the major averages soaring. The Dow Jones In= dustrial Average added more than 500 points= , while the S&P 500 rose more th= an 2%, with all 11 sectors of the benchmark index finishing higher. = The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite also soared, bringing its recent gains to <= span style=3D"color: #008000;">over 20% to enter bull market territo= ry, while adding to the two-month recovery for financial markets.

<= span style=3D"font-style: italic;" class=3D"italic">The data: The ra= te of annual CPI inflation fell to 8.5% in July, fr= om 9.1% in the previous month. Core CPI rose 0.3%, less than forecast, drop= ping to 5.9% on an annual pace. Traders now see a 43.5% chance the central = bank will hike rate by 75 basis points in September (compared with 68% befo= re the CPI numbers), according to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, while a 50= basis point hike is shown as a 56.5% probability.

Going deeper int= o the figures, not everything was so rosy. Grocery prices rose 13% in July = from a year ago, marking the fastest pace of inflation since 1979, while di= ning-out shot up as well. Shelter costs, which make up about one-third of t= he CPI weighting, also continued their ascent, up 5.7% over the past 12 mon= ths. However, gasoline eased down 7.7% in July from the prior month, while = used-car prices, airline fares and apparel dropped on a month-to-month basi= s.

Commentary: "The number is a huge relief because anything that keeps the Fed from doi= ng more damage is a positive for all of us," explained Bryce Doty, portfoli= o manager at Sit Investment Associates. "One month doesn't necessarily make= a trend but we are certainly encouraged that inflation is moving in the ri= ght direction," noted Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at Cresset Capit= al. (176 comments)
     
Earnings
Disney= edges Netflix
The magic returned to Disney (DIS) on Wednesday as a vacationer surge back int= o parks led to a third-quarter earnings upside surp= rise. Shares climbed nearly 7% t= o $120 in post-market trading, with revenue for Disney Parks, Experiences a= nd Products jumping 70% to $7.4B and operating income surging to $2.2B. Tec= h innovations like reservation systems played a role in the parks' outperfo= rmance, while confidence appeared to return after a bruising few months tri= ggered by the "Don't Say Gay" tussle between Disney (DIS) and Florida's legislature.
Conference call:<= /span> CEO Bob Chapek said<= /a> all of the company's theme parks are now open, and visits are strong, b= ut cruise ships and international visitors have some recovery ahead. "Even = while the average daily attendance at our domestic parks across the first t= hree quarters of this fiscal year was slightly below 2019, we have delivere= d significantly higher revenue and operating income over that same time per= iod," added CFO Christine McCarthy. "This approach also provides flexibilit= y with levers we can adjust if demand were to shift."

Over in stream= ing, the House of Mouse beat estimates by tacking on another 14.4M users du= ring the quarter for a total of 152.2M Disney+ subscribers (or 221M total s= treaming subs when factoring in ESPN+ and Hulu). At those numbers, Disney w= ould have a larger base than its closest competitor Netflix (NFLX), though it continues to bleed cash. Disn= ey's streaming operation lost $1.1B during FQ3, more than triple its loss o= f $293M a year earlier.

Oh, boy! Growth expectations were cut after Disney failed to ren= ew cricket rights for the popular Indian Premier League. Subscriber forecas= ts for 2024 now range between 215M-245M, down from 230M-260M, prompting the= company to unveil a new U.S. pricing structure to make its streaming busin= ess profitable. Starting Dec. 8., Disney+ with commercials will cost $7.99 = per month - which is currently the price of Disney+ without ads - while the= monthly membership of ad-free Disney+ will rise 38% to $10.99. (75 comments)
     
Global
Crisis on the Rh= ine
An economic slowdown in Germany is now more likely than= ever as fresh troubles on the Rhine River pose a headache for shipping and= heavy industry. Levels at Kaub, a key point on the waterway west of Frankf= urt, were poised to breach 40 centimeters (15.75 inches) on Friday, and wil= l continue to dwindle in navigability in the coming days. Below that marker= , it's not economical for many barges to transit the river, which is used t= o ship everything from oil & gas and coal to chemicals and grain.
What happened? Weeks of dry weather have weighed on Europe's maj= or waterway, with shallow depths preventing barges from loading their full = volumes. The effects could ripple through the continent for months, just as= the region is on the brink of recession from the war in Ukraine and untame= d inflation. Economists estimate the Rhine disruption could knock half a pe= rcentage point off Germany's growth this year, adding to the significant pr= ice pressures seen across many Western European countries.

"We're ex= pecting this situation to continue towards the end of the year," noted Tori= l Bosoni, head of the IEA's oil market division, adding that conditions cou= ld be more precarious for landlocked countries in central and eastern Europ= e that normally get energy deliveries via the Rhine.

Making preparations: Chemical maker = BASF (OTCQX:BASFY= ) hasn't rule= d out production cuts as it placed orders for shallow-water barges and = uses more rail to transport goods. Utility Uniper (OTC:UNPPY) warned that it canno= t bring enough coal by train to run its plants at full capacity for an exte= nded period of time, threatening output at Germany's coal-fired power stati= ons. Crisis teams at Thyssenkrupp (OTCPK:TKAMY) are also meeting daily as the st= eelmaker uses ships with lower drafts to keep up supplies. (14 comments)
     

U.S. Indices
Dow +2.9% to= 33,761. S&P 500 +3.3%<= /span> to 4,280. Nasdaq +3.= 1% to 13,047. Russell 2000 +4.8% to 2,013. CBOE Volatility Index -7.7% to 19.53.

S&P 500 S= ectors
Consumer Staples +1.6%. Utilities +2.8%. Financials +6.3%. Telecom += 3.6%. Healthcare +1.= 6%. Industrials +4.7= %. Information Technology +2.2%. Materials +6.4%. Energy +9.= 3%. Consumer Discretionary +2.9%.

World Indices
London +0.8% to 7,501. France +1.3% to 6,554. German= y +1.6% to 13,796. J= apan +1.3% to 28,547= . China +1.6% to 3,2= 77. Hong Kong -0.1% to= 20,176. India +1.8%= to 59,463.

Commodities and Bonds
Crude Oil WTI= +3.2% to $91.88/bbl= . Gold +1.5% to $1,8= 18.4/oz. Natural Gas +8.9%<= /span> to 8.78. Ten-Year Bond Yield -0.2 bps to 2.842.

Fore= x and Cryptos
EUR/USD +0.79%. USD/JPY -1.12%. GBP/USD +0.= 53%. Bitcoin +8.1%. Litecoin +5.3%. Ethereum +18.7%. = XRP +3.4%.

<= strong>Top S&P 500 Gainers
Nielsen Holdings (NLSN) +20%. Albemarle (ALB) +18%. Principal Financial Group (PFG) +17%<= /span>. Devon Energy (DVN<= /a>) +16%. Viatris (= VTRS) +14%.

Top S&P 500 Losers
Moderna (MRNA) -8%. Illumina (ILMN) -7%. Tyson Foods (T= SN) -6%. Warner Br= os. Discovery (WBD= ) -6%. KLA (KLAC) -4%.


Where will the markets = be headed next week? Current trends and ideas? Add your thoughts to the com= ments section.
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